In the last two months we are hearing a lot of negative economic news that can affect the real estate market: soaring inflation, energy crisis, rising interest rates, among others. The load of discouraging news is so important that the market in Marbella and Benahavís has already suffered and the professionals who work in this sector have noticed a decrease in activity. I have already commented in a previous newsletter my opinion on the subject:
I think we will see a slowdown in the market due to the decrease in demand caused by the barrage of negative news and the decision of some buyers to postpone the decision to buy while waiting for lower prices, which would be understood as reasonable considering the negativity we receive daily.
The market is much healthier than in 2008 with much less potentially bad credit and much less inventory than at that time and therefore less prone to a deep crisis.
We must bear in mind that the quality of life enjoyed here is the driving force of our market, which has matured a lot in recent years, gradually moving from being a purely holiday market to a market where the first residence for foreigners, and especially after the pandemic, has become much more important, and that engine will not stop with a potential crisis that analysts say will be short-lived.
In any case, and in order to include other opinions in this article, we have included them below:
Idealista News (29-09-2022): Gonzalo Bernardos-analyst and real estate consultant- : In Spain there will not be a crisis like that of 2008, but there will be a mild recession.
Business Insider (17-10-2022): For the first time in a long time, the world is facing a 'light' recession triggered months ago by the tightening of monetary policy. Unlike previous crises, this is expected to be the most moderate contraction in a recession period in the last 40 years.
ElEconomista.es (14-10-2022): The real estate sector prepares for the imminent fall in house prices in Spain.
La Opinión de Málaga (03-10-2022): Second-hand housing continues to rise above 10% per year. Second-hand housing has continued its upward trend in the third quarter of the year, but it is expected that with the recent interest rate hikes put on the table by the European Central Bank, the final stretch of the year will bring with it a slight slowdown, says Ferran Font, director of research at pisos.com.
20 Minutos (17-10-2022): JP Morgan issues a warning about a possible global recession. The recession would arrive in mid-2023, although it is difficult to foresee its duration and repercussions worldwide. The IMF points to Spain as one of the countries that will avoid recession.