The Spanish Ministry for Housing has just published the home sales figures per municipality for the second quarter of 2024, revealing that the real estate market remains active. We’ve analyzed the data for Marbella and Benahavis, leading to two key observations:
1. Different trends in Marbella and Benahavis. Both municipalities showed slightly different home sale trends. In Marbella, the first half of 2024 saw a 10.2% increase in home sales compared to the same period in 2023. However, it’s important to note that while sales are up year-overyear, the market is still 16.8% behind the record levels seen in 2022. On the other hand, Benahavis experienced a sharper decline, with home sales down 19.9% compared to the first semester of 2023, and an even steeper drop of 37.5% when compared to the peak year of 2022. This divergence in performance reflects local market conditions and possibly differing demand trends between these neighboring municipalities.
2. Sales likely to exceed historical averages. Although we’re only halfway through the year and the complete data is still forthcoming, it’s highly probable that both Marbella and Benahavis will finish 2024 with home sales above the average of the last 20 years. In Marbella, sales are also expected to exceed the post-pandemic average of the last three years. Benahavis, however, may not reach this benchmark due to the more pronounced slowdown observed in its market, as highlighted earlier. This could point to an adjustment phase, particularly in terms of pricing and buyer preferences in this area.
In conclusion, while the real estate markets in Marbella and Benahavis remain active, they are showing signs of normalization after the effect of the pandemic, especially in terms of volume. This moderation
could have a stabilizing effect on property prices, which is generally positive for long-term market health. Although no major negative indicators are anticipated, some factors - such as rising asking prices and continued international geopolitical uncertainty - may present challenges.
Conversely, the market may benefit from potential interest rate reductions and a shortage of desirable properties, which could continue to drive demand and support prices moving forward.