Great surprise to see the numbers published recently by the Ministry of Housing on the numbers of closed transactions at the fourth quarter of 2021 for the municipalities of the Costa del Sol. The sale numbers are even better than expected. We knew that the fourth quarter of last year had been a good one but we were not expecting to reach those levels that are, in some cases, higher than the ones of the years before the 2008 crisis. In fact, in Marbella, Benahavís, Estepona and Mijas, this last quarter of 2021 has been the best in the number of closed sales in the history of those municipalities.
GRÁFICO 2 - NÚMERO DE VIVIENDAS VENDIDAS EN BEHAHAVÍS 2º TRIMESTRE 2021
When looking at Chart 1 with the closed transactions per year, it shows that 2021 has been the best year after 2008. The tendency was showing a decline since 2017 but 2021 broke that downward tendency. A lot was said about a post pandemic recovery taking into account that people preferred to spend the time confined in a nice home in Marbella enjoying our weather than in some other places of Europe and that it is perfectly possible to work remotely for business owners while living at the coast. However, the rebound has been unexpectedly high.
If a look is taken to the data of Benahavís shown on Chart 2, it can be seen that the numbers are amazing and that 2021 has been, with a difference of a +15%, the best year ever in the history of Benahavís when considering the number of closed transactions. That number comes from an incredible number of closed sales in the fourth quarter that has been an amazing 28% higher than the previous record year, 2014.
Although the charts for Estepona and Mijas have not been included, they show for Estepona, as in Benahavís, historical records and, for Mijas, the best year since 2008.
Having this spectacular numbers brings the next question that is for how long the market will maintain this level of activity. The best answer is who knows but we would really like to know it. In general, the predictions state that the stress on the economy caused by energy prices may continue to the summer and then will relax. That also will affect the inflation in Spain that is expected to be on 7,5%, too high for this year and not sustainable, but with a prediction to go down to at least 4% next year. That will also push the interest rates up which is not good for the sales but does not affect that much, if they stay on normal levels, to holiday homes. Therefore, although the economy in general may be stressed at least in the short term, the conditions that caused the level of sales we are having are still there so, and this a general comment I am hearing in the market, everybody expects at least another two years of high activity. Time will tell.