After the publication of the information on prices by the Ministry of Housing, the Land Registrars Association and the real estate portal Idealista for the first quarter of 2023, the first conclusion is that prices keep on with the same upward trend with several key points that are worth noting:
1. Firstly, in Marbella, the asking prices continue to rise at a quarterly rate of 4.0% and a yearly rate of 18.6%, showing no signs of slowing down. Prior to the pandemic, yearly increases in asking prices remained below 10%. However, the current increase has reached nearly 20%, which I believe is unsustainable in the medium term and may negatively impact the market. Although the market is performing well and inventory
2. On the other hand, the closing prices of properties in Marbella during the first quarter of 2023 did not increase compared to the previous quarter. Whether this is merely a conjunctural fact or an indication of a deceleration in price increases will become clearer when the information for the second quarter is released.
3. A similar trend can be observed in Benahavis, albeit at different rates. The asking prices are still rising, but at a more moderate quarterly rate of 1.0% and a yearly rate of 7.5%. While closing prices for homes are still increasing on a yearly basis, they experienced a notable decrease of 4.8% in the last quarter. I believe this reduction may be circumstantial, and we can expect a stabilization of closing prices when data for the second quarter, which had increased activity, is released. Therefore, an eye should be monitoring those numbers.
4. Regarding the gap between asking prices and closing prices, the difference remains around 20%, with slightly higher values in Benahavis, representing the highest level since 2016.
5. Just to be noted that the valuation prices, indicated in red on the chart for Marbella, are another 11% below the closing prices and on an upward tendency.
In summary, the tendency shows prices going up, maybe too much when considering asking prices, although with some moderation in the last quarter. The data for the second quarter will reveal whether the slowdown in price increases observed in the first quarter is merely circumstantial or a necessary trend towards moderation.