Although there is no real or official data on the number of properties for sale in the market in Marbella and Benahavís, for some years we have been making an estimate following the same criteria which, although it does not give us the exact number, it does give us a trend of how the inventory is evolving. The results of this estimation for the end of 2022 are shown in graphs 1 and 2 for Marbella and Benahavís. Analyzing these curves, the following conclusions can be drawn:
1. Referring to graph 1 for Marbella, it can be seen that thenumber of apartments for sale continues to fall following the trend that started in 2021 although looking at the estimated number it can be guessed that the drop in the inventory of apartments has moderated in the last six months of 2022 but still reaching a drop of almost 30% over the maximum of 2020. This moderation, which also coincides with the sales records of 2022, may mean that more and more owners put their properties on the market to take advantage of an extremely favorable situation for sellers, which is known as a seller's market, i.e., little product for sale, which drives up prices, as is happening now.
2. On the other hand, if you look at the number of villas for sale in Marbella, although the inventory was on a downward trend from 2021, in 2022 it changed slightly to start to rise again in a gentle way indicating that, although sales increased, the number of properties coming to the market was greater than those being sold. Even so, the decline in inventory is 9% from the 2020 peak.
3. In Benahavís, the trends are similar with the difference that the stock of villas for sale is higher than that of apartments. Unlike Marbella, the moderation of the trend is shown in both types of product, villas and apartments, albeit after a 21% drop in the number of apartments for sale and only 1% in the number of villas for sale. In Benahavís, the number of properties sold reached an all-time high in 2022, so it is understood, as in Marbella, that the rise in inventory is associated with the opportunity for sellers to take advantage of the circumstances of a market that is extremely favorable to them.
Although the official number of properties sold in the last quarter of 2022 is not yet known, the forecasts, and the market sentiment, were very good and it is expected that last year's transaction records will be confirmed, reaffirming that this is still a seller's market. Although we continue with very high numbers of properties sold, the stabilization of the drop in inventory could lead to a moderation in price increases, which I believe cannot continue at this same level for long (in Benahavís 19.5% in 2021 and, for the moment, 11.9% in 2022) and could cause the market to enter into more moderated increased in pices.