We would say that we do not think so for five reasons: much less construction, what is being built is being sold, much less inventory, credits much more controlled, reasons for the growth are still there—lifestyle. We are going to base the reasoning on the information provided recently by the Ministry of Housing for 2022 on the number of homes being initiated and finished and the rate of sales of new units.
1. As it can be easily seen with Chart 1, in 2004 42.000 new properties were initiated in the Malaga province while in 2022 only 6.891 were started which represents only 16% of what was happening in 2004. Although the chart only covers from 2004 onwards, the peak of new construction was reached in the province of Malaga in 2003 with 83.274 units that means 12 times more than now. We have heard that there is a lot of construction now but it is nothing compared to what we had on the boom years.
2. Independently of the number of homes being built, the important number is how many of those are being sold. The green line on Chart 1 shows the number of new units sold versus the ones finished. In 2021 and 2022 the number is over 100% so more new units are sold than the ones being finished so the stock of new homes is being reduced. If we check that line in the boom years, between 2004 and 2007, only 40% of the new builts were being sold so, with the levels of construction mentioned on the above paragraph, the stock of unsold new homes was growing and growing crazily until the bubble burst in 2008.
3. As said, with lots of unsold inventory in 2008, what was the consequence? Massive reductions in price to be able to sell that collapsed the market and forced the bankruptcy of many developers that had been attracted by the fast growth of the market and left leaving those properties to be repossessed by banks. The situation of the inventory is completely different now. That situation is shown by the red line on the chart.
4. These developers were extremely active because of the easy access to loans that the banks were promoting that was really the main cause of the problem. Nowadays, having learned the lesson of 2008, banks are much more restrictive with the credits to developers and they have created special departments for these operations.
5. We have seen in the last years that the Costa del Sol has become a destination not only for those looking to enjoy a deserved retirement after a long working life but also to people looking for the great lifestyle that Marbella & Benahavis are offering.
In summary, for the reasons we have exposed we don't think the situation is right now even closer to what happen in 2008. We are feeling a cooling down of the market caused by the macro economic situation and the increase in interest rates but we are facing a “normal” year after an extremely active and record year 2022.
Source: Colegio de Registradores de España