Based on the price data for the first quarter of 2024 — as the figures for the second quarter have not yet been re-leased by the Land Registries — we have compiled two charts to analyze trends: one for Marbella and another for Benahavis. These charts show the trends in asking prices, closing prices, and valuations by appraisers. A shift in the-se trends is beginning to emerge, offering some interest-ing insights:
1. Asking prices continue to rise. Property owners are still setting higher asking prices, with a double-digit growth pattern that has persisted for the past three years. In the last twelve months, asking prices increased by 11% in Marbella and 13% in Benahavis. As previously mentioned, a healthy market cannot sustain such prolonged double-digit growth.
2. Closing prices are flattening. The prices at which prop-erties are actually sold, as reported by the Land Registry, have shown a slight decline — down 1% since the first quarter of 2023 in Marbella, with consecutive decreases in the last two quarters. Benahavis reflects a similar trend with a 1% decline and three quarters of consecutive decreases. This marks the first significant change in the trend since the pandemic year of 2020.
3. The gap between asking and closing prices is widening. In Marbella, this gap has reached a historic high of almost 30%, while in Benahavis, it is closer to 20%. If property owners continue to set higher asking prices, the disparity between what sellers want and what buyers are willing to pay will grow, potentially impacting the number of sales in the market.
4. Valuators are also increasing prices, but at a slower rate. The red line on the chart represents the valuations given by appraisers, which also show an upward trend of 6.3% over the past year. However, this increase is about half of what is being reflected in asking prices.
In summary, while asking prices keep climbing, actual closing prices have re-mained flat. This divergence is causing the gap between what owners are asking and what buyers are willing to pay to wid-en. The data on closed transactions for the second quarter of 2024 is expected to be released in early October, which will provide further insights into whether this growing gap is impacting the number of sales in the market.