The Real Estate Market: offer going up and demand down

The Ministry of Housing recently published the information on the closed transactions of the different municipalities of the Costa del Sol including Marbella and Benahavis. Additionally, the information coming from Land Registrars of Spain and an estimation of the number of properties for sale acquired from different real estate web portals has also been incorporated to this newsletter to obtain the market trends that are shown below with arrows. It can be said that it is like a summary of how the real estate market is evolving.

A simple analysis shows that the number of properties for sale is going up, in general too much, and the number of closed transactions is going down when compared to the same periods of the previous year. Simplifying even more, increasing supply and decreasing demand. On the information about the closed sales, it has to be specified that the official number refers to signed closing deeds and does not account for those sales of new developments closed on private purchase contracts pending to be signed at Notary after the completion of the works so that can change the analysis slightly. If we refer to second hand properties, the number of closed sales is clearly going down. In fact, we are already seeing articles on national newspapers announcing that same reduction in sales through the whole of Spain (Diario El Mundo). When the offer increases and the demand decreases, in general, the market destabilizes and gets into trouble. The first consequence would be an adjustment on the prices but that effect has not been seen yet clearly. The price index of the last quarter already shows a negative correction but it has been only on the last quarter and it can not yet be called a tendency. What is true is that we have felt a slowing down in the activity in the market in the last months that can be the consequence of the numbers shown here. The investors are more cautious and are the ones that have been moving, in some way, the market of Marbella and Benahavis in the last years.

Cambios en las leyes que rigen las propiedades

Tan solo un breve comentario en esta Newsletter para informar de tres leyes que rigen las propiedades que han sido modificadas recientemente en España. Aunque estoy a la espera de recibir artículos de expertos en la materia con sus comentarios sobre estas para próximos Newsletters, al menos quería hacer mención a ellas de forma que si alguien pudiese verse afectado, pudiera consultar su situación particular con su abogado o asesor fiscal.

1.– La Ley de Propiedad Horizontal, con respecto a los alquileres de corta temporada, de modo que las comunidades puedan poner veto a este tipo de alquileres si una mayoría cualificada así lo decidiese.

2.– Ley de Alquileres. Hay cambios en la ley que regula el alquiler de propiedades en España. Vale la pena echarles un ojo a dichos cambios.

3.– Ley de Hipotecas. También hay cambios en la ley que regula las hipotecas. 

El Mercado Inmobiliario se contrajo a finales de 2018

El Ministerio de Fomento publicó recientemente la información sobre las transacciones cerradas en los distintos Ayuntamientos de la Costa del Sol. Se ha trasladado dicha información, incluyendo el tercer y el cuarto trimestre de 2018, a la tabla que sigue donde también se ha hecho una comparación con los datos del mismo periodo de 2017. Adicionalmente, se ha resaltado en azul el porcentaje de propiedades de nueva construcción que se han vendido. Resumiendo, podemos decir que los precios han aumentado, el inventario está creciendo demasiado y las transacciones están bajando. En Marbella, la venta de propiedades de segunda mano ha bajado en el 4º trimestre en un 21,2 % y en Benahavís un 11,9 % respecto al mismo trimestre de 2017. Si tomamos solo los datos de Marbella, esa cifra fue también negativa al comparar los terceros trimestres de 2017 y 2018. Se puede ver esa misma tendencia en la mayoría de los municipios al observar los números del cuarto trimestre de 2018 frente a los de 2017.  No pinta bien cuando se analizan estas cifras aunque la sensación en el primer trimestre de 2019 fue relativamente buena. Lo que está claro es que, con todo este inventario, que continúa creciendo con todas las nuevas promociones y los precios subiendo, tan solo las propiedades con precios realmente competitivos van a venderse y esto es exactamente lo que estamos viendo en este mercado y, precisamente, lo que estamos vendiendo.

Changes in property laws

Just a brief comment on this Newsletter to inform about three property laws that have been recently modified in Spain so, although I will have coming articles from experts on these issues commenting on them, I wanted to at least mentioned them. If someone may be affected, he may check his particular situation with a lawyer or tax advisor.

1.– Horizontal property law in short term rentals so the communities can put a veto on short term rental if a qualified majority decides so.

2.– Rentals law. There are changes on the law that regulates the rental of properties in Spain. It is worth taking a look to those changes.

3.– Mortgage law. There are also changes on the law that regulates the mortgages.

If we summarize the real estate market in the area, we can say that prices are going up, inventory is growing too much and transactions are going down. In Marbella and on second hand properties, the number of sales has been reduced in the fourth quarter by 21,2% and in Benahavis by 11,9% when compared with the same periods of 2017. If we take only Marbella, that number was also negative when comparing the third quarters of 2017 and 2018. We can see the same negative numbers in most municipalities of the Costa del Sol when looking at the fourth quarter of 2018 vs the same one of 2017. Things look bad when analyzing those numbers but the feeling in the first quarter of 2019 was relatively good.  What it is clear is that, with this extremely high inventory, that keeps on growing with all the new constructions increasing and the prices going up, only the properties with really competitive prices will be sold and that is exactly what we are seeing in this market and what we are selling.ng competition, to be able to sell it is very important to have a competitive pricing, and new developments are coming up, which will increase even more the inventory.

Newsletter on the Real Estate Market of Marbella & Benahavis - July 2019

Newsletter sobre el Mercado Inmobiliario de Marbella y Benahavís - Julio 2019

Newsletter sobre el Mercado Inmobiliario de Marbella y Benahavís - Mayo 2019

Newsletter on the Real Estate Market of Marbella & Benahavis - May 2019

The Real Estate Market went down at the end of 2018

The Ministry of Housing recently published the information on the closed transactions by council at the Costa del Sol. I have transcribed that information, including the third and fourth quarter of 2018, in the following table where I also compared the data with the same quarters of 2017. Additionally, I have highlighted in blue the percentage of newly built properties sold.

If we summarize the real estate market in the area, we can say that prices are going up, inventory is growing too much and transactions are going down. In Marbella and on second hand properties, the number of sales has been reduced in the fourth quarter by 21,2% and in Benahavis by 11,9% when compared with the same periods of 2017. If we take only Marbella, that number was also negative when comparing the third quarters of 2017 and 2018. We can see the same negative numbers in most municipalities of the Costa del Sol when looking at the fourth quarter of 2018 vs the same one of 2017. Things look bad when analyzing those numbers but the feeling in the first quarter of 2019 was relatively good.  What it is clear is that, with this extremely high inventory, that keeps on growing with all the new constructions increasing and the prices going up, only the properties with really competitive prices will be sold and that is exactly what we are seeing in this market and what we are selling.ng competition, to be able to sell it is very important to have a competitive pricing, and new developments are coming up, which will increase even more the inventory.

Newsletter on the Real Estate Market of Marbella & Benahavis - February 2019

Real Estate Prices in Marbella and Benahavis keep on going up

The Ministry of Housing recently published the information on the index price where we can see more increases in prices along the coast from Estepona to Malaga. I have double checked these numbers with the price index of one of the best real estate webs in Spain, Fotocasa, and the tendency is also upwards. The price per square meter is different because the prices on the real estate webs are “for sale” prices and, therefore, higher than the actual “sold” prices. In general, that difference is 17% higher on the web portals than the official price index.

In Marbella and Benahavis we are in a situation with increasing prices, a slight reduction in the number of transactions and an increasing number of properties for sale on the market. Therefore, the market is still in good conditions but we have to keep an eye on the inventory and the number of transactions. Specially on this last number that will come out at the beginning of March that is the one that shows how strong the market is. The first indications show that it went down about 10% in the province of Malaga versus the previous quarter but we will have to review it in detail to understand where and to which level compared to the same period of the previous year. In general, it is the same situation we’ve seen last year with a strong competition, to be able to sell it is very important to have a competitive pricing, and new developments are coming up, which will increase even more the inventory.

Los precios de la vivienda en Marbella y Benahavis siguen subiendo.

Los números del Mercado parecen ir bien y creciendo ligeramente salvo el del inventario de propiedades en venta. Cada trimestre hago una estimación, ya que no existen datos oficiales, que, aunque no da el número exacto de propiedades en venta, si proporciona una tendencia sobre si sube o baja ese inventario.

El Ministerio de Vivienda publicó recientemente la información sobre el índice de precios, donde podemos ver más aumentos en los precios a lo largo de la costa desde Estepona a Málaga. Tras verificar dos veces estos números con los de una de las mejores páginas inmobiliarias de España, Fotocasa, la tendencia también es ascendente. El precio por metro cuadrado es diferente porque los precios de las páginas inmobiliarias son de propiedades "en venta" y, por lo tanto, más altos que los precios realmente "vendidos". En general, esa diferencia es un 17% mayor en las páginas web que el índice de precios oficial. Estamos en una situación en Marbella y Benahavis con precios al alza, una ligera reducción en el número de transacciones y un número creciente de propiedades en venta en el mercado. Por lo tanto, el mercado todavía está en buena forma, pero debemos vigilar el inventario y la cantidad de transacciones. Especialmente en este último número que saldrá a principios de marzo, es el que muestra cuán fuerte es el mercado. Los primeros indicios muestran que disminuyó alrededor del 10% en la provincia de Málaga si lo comparamos con el trimestre anterior, pero tendremos que revisarlo en detalle para comprender dónde y con qué nivel en comparación con el mismo período del año 2018. En general, es la misma situación en la que vivimos el año pasado con una fuerte competencia para poder vender, lo que hace que los precios competitivos sean aún más críticos ahora y que aparezcan nuevas propiedades que aumentarán aún más el inventario.

Newsletter sobre el Mercado Inmobiliario de Marbella y Benahavís - Febrero 2019

Newsletter on the Real Estate Market of Marbella & Benahavis - January 2019

Newsletter sobre el Mercado Inmobiliario de Marbella y Benahavís - Enero 2019

El aumento del inventario de propiedades en Benahavís no ayuda.

Los números del Mercado parecen ir bien y creciendo ligeramente salvo el del inventario de propiedades en venta. Cada trimestre hago una estimación, ya que no existen datos oficiales, que, aunque no da el número exacto de propiedades en venta, si proporciona una tendencia sobre si sube o baja ese inventario.

Mirando en detalle los números de Benahavís, se puede observar la misma tendencia que he venido comentando en mis últimos newsletters, un incremento continuo del número de propiedades en venta. Este aumento no solo es observable en las villas que han mostrado esa misma tendencia durante los últimos cinco años sino también, y esto ha cambiado en el último año, en el número de apartamentos. Todos estamos viendo unas cuantas  nuevas promociones  saliendo a un mercado que no es capaz de absorber el inventario existente. Por tanto, esos aumentos que se están produciendo en el número de ventas no son capaces de compensar el aumento de producto y esto podría afectar a los precios. Más competencia significa que solo se van a vender las propiedades que salgan al mercado en precios competitivos. Por otra parte y en Marbella, la situación es algo distinta, baja el número de apartamentos en venta por debajo de 250.000 €, lo cual es bueno para los vendedores, y se mantienen el resto de las propiedades. El aumento en las ventas esta aguantando el incremento en el inventario pero todavía en un mercado de compradores, quizá no en sitios prime pero si en general.

Increasing stock of properties for sale in Benahavis does not help.

The numbers on the market seem to be stable and growing except by one, the stock of properties for sale. Every quarter I do an estimation, since data is not officially available, that does not give an exact number but, at least, provides the tendency.

Looking closely to the data of Benahavis, it can be observed the same tendency that I have been commenting in my latest newsletters, that is a continuous increase in the number of properties for sale. That increase is observable not only for villas that has had that same tendency in the last five years but also, and that has changed last year, in the number of apartments. We all have seen new developments of apartments coming out to the market on a market that is not able to absorb the existing inventory. Therefore, the slight increase in the number of sales is not able to absorb the increasing inventory and that affects directly the prices. More competition means that only properties priced competitively will be sold. On the other hand, and if we look to Marbella, it can be noticed a decrease in the number of apartments below 250.000 € and a stable inventory for more expensive apartments and villas. The situation is good for those selling properties below the 250.000 € range but still complicated for those selling properties on top of that value. In this case, the increase in sales is maintaining the inventory stable but with an oversupply of properties that still situates us on a buyer’s market.  Maybe not on prime locations but in general.

How was the first semester in the Real Estate Market?

I have gathered the information on sales, not only second hand but also newly built, recently published by the Ministry of Housing, to try to analyze how the real estate market is doing in Marbella and Benahavis. In general I have to say that the market is getting better with some concerns.

Starting with Marbella, the number of transactions keeps on going up and 2018 has had the best first semester in sales of the last five years. I thought we were going to see more transactions of new properties but they are still at a low 3%. During the “good” years that percentage was higher but, right now, most of the new complexes are being developed in municipalities close to Marbella.

On the other hand in Benahavis, the situation is better than last year when we saw a slow first semester but the market is still below the first semester of 2014 and 2016, just before the Brexit vote. I thought the year was going to be better due to the strong start in the first quarter (the best in the last five years) but later on in the second quarter the market slowed down strangely. Something we felt and has now been confirmed by the numbers. On new properties, the percentage of sales in Benahavis is higher than in Marbella reaching a 15% of the transactions probably due to the finishing of the developments started two years ago that are been registered this year.

¿Cómo fue el primer semestre en el Mercado Inmobiliario?

He recopilado información sobre  las ventas, no solo de segunda mano sino también de nueva construcción, publicada por el Ministerio de Vivienda, para tratar de analizar el desarrollo del mercado inmobiliario en Marbella y Benahavis. En general, debo decir que el mercado está mejorando con algunas salvedades.

Empezando por Marbella, el número de transacciones sigue aumentando y 2018 ha tenido el mejor primer semestre en ventas de los últimos cinco años. Pensé que íbamos a ver más transacciones de  propiedades nuevas, pero aún están al 3%. Durante los años "buenos", ese porcentaje fue mayor, pero en este momento, la mayoría de los nuevos complejos se están desarrollando en municipios cercanos a Marbella.

Por otro lado, en Benahavis, la situación es mejor que la del año pasado cuando vimos un lento primer semestre, pero el mercado aún está por debajo del primer semestre de 2014 y 2016, justo antes de la votación del Brexit. El año prometia que iba a ser mejor debido al fuerte comienzo en el primer trimestre (el mejor en los últimos cinco años), pero más tarde en el segundo trimestre el mercado se desaceleró de manera extraña. En propiedades nuevas, el porcentaje de ventas en Benahavis es más alto que en Marbella, alcanzando un 15% de las transacciones, probablemente debido a la finalización de los desarrollos iniciados hace dos años que se han registrado este año.

The issue of the stock of properties for sale in Benahavís

Although this information is not official as the Ministry does not publish it, I do  consider it as extremely important because it complements the data on the number of transactions and the index price. 

To estimate the inventory, I used different por-tals and multiple listing tools that would not give me the exact number of properties for sale but at least the tendency. Going first to the chart of Benahavís, it is easy to see that the inventory, especially the one of villas, keeps going up, which does not help sellers trying to sell their properties. For apartments, the inventory re-mained stable until 2016 but has started to go up again since then. For villas, it keeps going up and has doubled the number of properties for sale since 2013. On the other hand in Marbella, we are starting to see decreases in the inventory and that, with time, will push prices up and drive the change from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market. That reduction in the stock of apartments for sale is mainly on properties below 250.000 €, while the number of properties for sale on top of that 250.000 € has remained equal for the last year. The increasing inventory is not a positive signal of a good market and we can see two different scenarios for Marbella and Benahavis.